Ukraine's drone-driven tactics erode Russian conventional forces, experts say
Analysts note that Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses on Russia's ground troops and forced Moscow to rely on foreign aid and accelerated weapons production, while both sides continue to adapt in a high-tech attrition war.
Ukraine has dealt severe damage to Russia's conventional ground forces, prompting Moscow to lean on expanded weapons production and limited foreign assistance, analysts said. The conflict, now in its fourth year, has shifted from a expected rapid Russian victory to a protracted, technology-focused war of attrition.
"Russia's conventional ground forces in Ukraine are being consistently and severely degraded," said Joshua Huminski, senior vice-president for national security and intelligence at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He added that assessing Russian military power solely on that basis would be a mistake, noting that the navy, strategic nuclear forces and cyber-space capabilities remain largely intact.
Ukraine's use of inexpensive drones and other rapidly developed systems has helped offset its manpower shortfalls, according to Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She said the advantage is not permanent; Russia has repeatedly reverse-engineered Ukrainian innovations and deployed countermeasures, creating a fast-moving cycle of adaptation.
North Korea has supplied ammunition, missiles and troops to Russia, filling gaps in Moscow's logistics and manpower. Snegovaya emphasized that despite a dramatic scale-up of domestic production, Russia's industry cannot fully meet the war's demands, and the partnership with Pyongyang reflects specific shortfalls rather than a systemic collapse.
Both experts stress that the war's outcome depends on continued Western support for Ukraine and on Russia's ability to sustain its expanded industrial effort amid growing economic strain. "Western countries must not only look at what Ukraine is doing, but also pay attention to what Russia is doing and how it is adapting," Huminski warned.
In the Black Sea, Ukraine has demonstrated the capacity to strike Russian naval assets far from the front line, challenging the notion that distance guarantees safety for Moscow's fleet. Snegovaya said the Russian navy remains vulnerable throughout the region.
Overall, the conflict has exposed limits to Russia's reliance on sheer mass, while highlighting the importance of rapid innovation and external assistance for Ukraine. The long-term balance of these dynamics will shape the future capabilities of both militaries.