Democrat Mary Peltola Leads Alaska Senate Race in Recent Polls

Mary Peltola, a Democrat and former Alaska congresswoman, is ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in the latest Alaska Senate polls. An August 11 Alaska Survey Research poll gave Peltola a 1.6-point edge, while earlier surveys showed a swing from a Sullivan lead to a seven-point Peltola advantage. The state will hold a nonpartisan primary on Aug. 18, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a November general election that uses ranked-choice voting.

Political analyst Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics said the race has become a toss-up as Alaska’s Republican lean has softened and Peltola outperformed the Democratic presidential ticket in 2024. The primary ballot includes 14 other candidates, among them a second Dan Sullivan who remains on the ticket after court rulings.

Peltola, a Yup’ik Alaska Native, was the first Alaska Native elected to Congress and the first woman to represent the state in the House. Her campaign blends typical Democratic themes such as affordability with support for Alaskan fisheries and oil-and-gas development, a stance described by University of Alaska Fairbanks professor Brandon Boylan as “a different type of Democrat.” University of Alaska Anchorage political scientist Joseph Warren noted that she has “separated herself from the national brand” of her party.

Sen. Sullivan’s campaign spokesperson Nate Adams criticized Peltola for not having any bills signed into law while she was in Congress, stating, “The choice is clear, and Alaskans made their choice about Mary Peltola two years ago when they fired her.”

Analysts point out that Alaska’s electorate can be fluid; while the state votes Republican in presidential contests, it has elected moderate Republicans such as Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who has occasionally broken with her party. Voter sentiment appears focused on local economic issues, including high energy costs, which some residents say outweigh national party considerations.

Both candidates have received endorsements from Alaska Native organizations, which traditionally support candidates based on community interests rather than partisan alignment. Peltola’s background includes service on the Bethel City Council and as a tribal court judge, underscoring her ties to Indigenous communities.