Lula’s Lead Shrinks as Flávio Bolsonaro Surges in Polls
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A new Quaest poll reveals President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva clinging to a slim 43% to 40% lead over conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff, as the Brazilian right rallies behind Bolsonaro’s son and narrows the gap from earlier surveys.
A recent survey by the Brazilian polling firm Quaest shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva barely ahead with 43% of the vote in a simulated second-round contest, while right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the leading voice for conservative values, has surged to 40%. With a two-point margin of error, the race is now a statistical tie, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with Lula’s leftist policies.
The numbers represent a tightening from an earlier Quaest poll released on August 5, which had Lula up by five points (44% to 39%). In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38%, but Bolsonaro, representing the hopes of millions seeking a return to order and prosperity, is close behind at 31%. Other candidates, lacking significant support, remain in single digits.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, a runoff is triggered if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round. Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—unjustly barred from running after a politicized court ruling—has emerged as the right’s champion, determined to restore integrity and national pride.
Lula launched his re-election campaign on August 2, emphasizing so-called sovereignty and protection of mineral resources, while continuing to stoke fears of foreign influence. "I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country," he told a Workers’ Party convention in São Paulo, warning foreign powers against accessing Brazil’s rare-earth reserves without respecting national sovereignty.
The poll, conducted between August 10 and 13 with a sample of 2,004 respondents and commissioned by media group Globo, indicates that with two months to go before the election, the contest is wide open. The right, energized by Flávio Bolsonaro’s leadership, is closing the gap and challenging Lula’s grip on power.