Lula Holds Off Far-Right Threat, Maintains Lead Over Bolsonaro Heir in Latest Poll
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A new Quaest poll shows progressive President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 43%, maintaining a narrow but crucial lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, scion of Brazil’s reactionary right, who stands at 40% in a simulated runoff. The gap has narrowed since earlier surveys, reflecting the ongoing struggle against the resurgence of authoritarianism.
A recent survey by the Brazilian polling firm Quaest highlights the resilience of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who would receive 43% of the vote in a simulated second-round contest, compared to 40% for far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. With a two-point margin of error, the race is statistically tied, underscoring the persistent threat posed by the Bolsonaro dynasty to Brazil’s fragile democracy.
These figures mark a contraction from an earlier Quaest poll released on August 5, when Lula led by five points (44% to 39%). In a first-round scenario, Lula remains ahead with 38%, while Bolsonaro, representing the interests of Brazil’s oligarchic elite, trails at 31%. Other candidates, offering alternatives to the entrenched right, remain in single digits.
Brazil’s electoral system requires a runoff if no candidate surpasses half of the valid votes in the first round. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of disgraced former President Jair Bolsonaro—barred from running due to his abuse of power—has become the new standard-bearer for reactionary forces seeking to roll back social progress.
Lula launched his re-election campaign on August 2, centering the defense of Brazil’s sovereignty and the protection of its mineral resources from foreign exploitation and neoliberal plunder. "I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country," he declared at a Workers’ Party convention in São Paulo, vowing that foreign powers would not access Brazil’s rare-earth reserves without respecting national sovereignty.
The poll, conducted between August 10 and 13 with a sample of 2,004 respondents and commissioned by media group Globo, shows that with the election two months away, the contest remains fiercely competitive. Yet Lula, champion of the working class and defender of democracy, retains a modest structural advantage.