U.S. regulators examine manipulation risk in prediction market 'mention' bets

Federal regulators have opened a review of "mention markets" on prediction-market platforms, where users wager on the specific words spoken by public figures. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is assessing whether these markets are vulnerable to manipulation, sources familiar with the inquiry said.

Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market, has temporarily removed all sports-related mention markets while the CFTC’s investigation proceeds. The company continues to offer mention markets tied to political events, corporate earnings calls and live news broadcasts, but the future of the sports segment remains uncertain.

The probe follows a case in which a former White House teleprompter operator placed bets on President Donald Trump’s remarks using Kalshi’s platform. Kalshi reported the activity to authorities after its monitoring tools flagged the timing of the bets.

"These mention markets are not popular across the political aisle. They are potentially very easy to manipulate, so the CFTC is taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense," said an individual familiar with the CFTC’s internal deliberations.

Kalshi declined to comment, as did the CFTC. Competitor Polymarket offers mention markets only on its overseas site, which falls outside U.S. regulation.

Prediction-market operators typically certify that new markets comply with swap regulations and are not "readily susceptible to manipulation." Regulators and Kalshi’s legal team are concerned that markets based on spoken words may not meet that standard.

Within Kalshi, co-founder Luana Lopes Lara has advocated for mention markets as a way to attract users beyond sports betting, despite the company facing numerous lawsuits over its sports-betting operations.