Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign defence pact amid shifting US role in Middle East

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact in Mecca on Friday, creating a framework that treats an armed attack on any of the three as an attack on all. The agreement, called the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, calls for enhanced defence cooperation among the three states.

Analysts say the pact reflects growing uncertainty about the durability of U.S. security guarantees after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Al Jazeera that regional states have harbored doubts about U.S. reliability for more than a decade and that the recent conflict has accelerated efforts to diversify security relations. He added that the new arrangement is not intended to replace the United States but to provide additional strategic options.

Sina Toossi, an analyst at the Center for International Policy, described the pact as an early sign that the regional order is being reshaped by the war. He noted that Saudi Arabia appears to be broadening its security partnerships beyond Washington, which could be the most significant implication of the deal.

Brett McGurk, a former senior U.S. Middle East policy official, characterized the current period as a "fluid, tabula rasa era" in the region. Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group emphasized that the three countries remain U.S. partners and do not seek to replace the United States or provoke further escalation with Iran. She described the agreement as a form of "normative deterrence" aimed at maintaining stability while encouraging mediation and de-escalation.