AfD Leads in German Polls as Chancellor Merz Faces Declining Approval

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surpassed Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative party in recent polls, marking a significant shift in Germany's political landscape. A Forsa poll indicates the AfD now holds 26% support, two points ahead of the conservatives.

This development follows public and political backlash over Merz's recent decisions, including the suspension of arms shipments to Israel after its announcement of plans to fully occupy Gaza. While this move was popular among voters, it angered conservative allies who viewed it as a betrayal of Germany's historical obligations.

Additionally, Merz's government has faced criticism for a failed judicial appointment and controversial stances on migration and economic policy. Despite earlier successes, such as passing a nearly trillion-euro debt package to support Ukraine and stimulate the economy, Merz's domestic popularity has declined. Only 32% of respondents in a recent poll rated him as a good crisis manager.

The AfD's rise in popularity is notable, especially considering its classification by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) as a "confirmed right-wing extremist endeavor" in May 2025. This classification allows German authorities to monitor the party and potentially limit or halt public funding.

Germany's next significant electoral test is the regional vote in the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg in March 2026, the first of five state elections scheduled for next year.