Scientists Warn Strong El Niño Could Push 2026 Toward Record Global Temperatures

Wildfires continue across North America and Europe while heat waves linger over major cities and ocean temperatures remain at record highs for this time of year. Climate scientists say the combination of accelerating anthropogenic warming and an unusually strong El Niño could bring global average temperatures close to, or possibly exceed, the 2024 record by the end of 2026.

Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather calculated a 35% chance that 2026 will outpace 2024 as the hottest year, up from 7% in March. Former NASA climate researcher James Hansen echoed the view, noting that sea-surface temperatures have matched 2024 levels since May and that the lag between ocean heat and global temperature suggests a record could be imminent. NOAA’s monitoring chief Russell Vose said the agency’s latest analysis, expected in July, may raise the odds further.

El Niño, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific, is projected to become the strongest on record. Climate Central’s Zachary Labe explained that while El Niño adds only a modest 0.1-0.2 °C to the long-term warming trend, the bulk of the heat comes from greenhouse-gas-driven climate change, which continues to intensify as industrial aerosols that previously masked warming decline.

Heat waves this summer have been unusually frequent in Europe, North America, South America, and India, with nighttime temperatures remaining high enough to affect sleep and health, according to Samantha Burgess of the Copernicus climate service. Princeton University’s Michael Oppenheimer said the events illustrate the heightened risk of extreme weather that climate change has long predicted.

Overall, scientists agree that while El Niño will amplify warming, the primary driver remains human-induced climate change, and they expect 2027 to surpass any recent year in heat intensity.