U.S. breakeven job growth rate falls to about 50,000, analysts say

The number of jobs required each month to hold the unemployment rate steady has fallen sharply, with Oxford Economics estimating the breakeven figure at about 50,000 new positions, down from more than 200,000 in 2022 and 2023. The decline is linked to reduced immigration under current policies and a declining labor-force participation rate as the population ages.

Dallas Federal Reserve researchers earlier this year found the breakeven rate turned slightly negative during the summer and fall of 2025, meaning payrolls could stagnate or contract without raising the unemployment rate. Economists Matthew Martin and Bernard Yaros project the breakeven rate will reach zero next year and become modestly negative by 2028, assuming immigration restrictions remain and the retirement of baby-boomers continues.

“Today, the labor market’s speed limit is much lower than just a few years ago, setting the stage for a jobless expansion,” the analysts wrote.

Despite the lower breakeven threshold, Oxford Economics expects overall job growth to stay modestly positive, driven by sectors such as healthcare that are less sensitive to economic cycles. The analysts also anticipate a gentle downward pressure on unemployment over the next two years.

“Slowing or falling employment would have to be accompanied by a large move higher in unemployment and other signs of weakness for the Fed to step back from considering rate hikes and pivot back to cuts,” Martin and Yaros added.

BNP Paribas economists noted that recent Supreme Court rulings allowing the termination of temporary protected status for certain non-citizen workers could further reduce the documented labor force, potentially increasing firms’ tendency to retain workers—a pattern observed during the pandemic.

Overall, the shrinking labor supply is contributing to a low-turnover environment, even as job-creation figures have shown recent improvement and unemployment claims remain low.