Former Congressman George Santos Fined and Banned from Kalshi Prediction Market
George Santos agreed to pay over $35,000 in penalties and received a three-year trading ban from Kalshi after regulators found he manipulated bets tied to his attendance at the State of the Union address.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said former New York Republican congressman George Santos will pay a $17,500 civil penalty and forfeit $17,570 in profits after a settlement over alleged manipulation of a prediction-market trade. The settlement also includes a three-year prohibition on trading on Kalshi, a platform that allows users to wager on political and other events.
Santos placed bets on Kalshi predicting that he would not attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, while publicly stating he intended to be present. He later announced on the social-media platform X that he would miss the event. Kalshi flagged the activity and referred it to federal authorities, prompting a CFTC investigation that began in June.
"Mr. Santos has agreed to resolve the CFTC’s inquiry and to put this matter behind him. Critically, and consistent with how these regulatory matters are commonly resolved, Mr. Santos has settled without admitting any of the Commission’s allegations, findings, or conclusions," said his attorney Joseph W. Murray.
Murray added that Santos chose "a prompt, practical resolution rather than protracted, costly litigation." The case follows earlier enforcement actions against participants in the growing prediction-market industry, including prior fines and suspensions of congressional candidates for betting on their own races. The CFTC has highlighted insider-trading oversight as a priority while Congress debates additional restrictions on the sector.
Santos, who was expelled from Congress in 2023 and previously served time for unrelated fraud and identity-theft charges, was released after a presidential commutation in October 2025.