Tropical Storm Bertha expected to bring surge and winds as El Niño moderates intensity

Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to move from western Florida toward southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday, bringing storm surge of up to four feet and sustained winds near 50 mph. Models do not anticipate further intensification, a senior researcher at Colorado State University attributes to strong northeast wind shear that should push most precipitation offshore and reduce rainfall totals.

"We're not expecting a big flood event like we normally would with a slow-moving system," said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center. "As long as that continues to play out, Louisiana especially could dodge some of the worst of the impacts."

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana, while a coastal flood warning covers Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines. Isolated flash-flooding is possible from western Florida to the upper Texas coast, according to the National Weather Service.

Although the 2026 hurricane season is projected to see fewer storms than average because of a strong El Niño, unusually warm Atlantic waters raise concerns about the potential for more powerful systems. A meteorologist in Tampa described the warm Gulf water as “high-octane” fuel for storms.

Research indicates that while the total number of hurricanes has declined over the past three decades, the share of major Category 4 and 5 storms has risen, a trend linked to higher sea-surface temperatures.

Officials from Ready.gov advise residents to develop evacuation plans, review insurance coverage, and keep documentation of valuables to aid any future claims. The National Hurricane Center cautions that the overall season should still be treated with the same level of preparedness as any other year.

"We need to continue to prepare for hurricane season just like any other," Rhome said.