Washington Post-Ipsos poll shows Democrats holding a narrow lead over Republicans ahead of midterms
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A Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted July 8-13 finds Democrats ahead of Republicans by three points nationally, with a larger margin among voters who are certain to cast a ballot.
A Washington Post-Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Democrats holding a slight edge over Republicans in the upcoming November midterm elections. The survey, fielded July 8-13, puts Democratic support at 48 percent versus 45 percent for Republicans, a three-point national lead. Among voters who say they are "absolutely certain to vote," the Democratic advantage widens to eight points, with 53 percent favoring Democrats and 45 percent backing Republicans.
The poll also notes that Democratic voters are about 10 percent more likely to say they will definitely vote this year than Republican voters, a gap larger than the two-point advantage recorded in 2018. House Speaker Mike Johnson currently leads the Republican conference by a two-vote margin, while Republicans hold a 53-47 seat majority in the Senate.
President Donald Trump’s overall approval rating in the poll stands at 37 percent, matching findings from a separate Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 10-13. The surveys cite economic concerns and the ongoing conflict in Iran as factors influencing public sentiment.
"Democrats are more motivated to vote," the poll’s analysis notes, highlighting the potential impact of voter enthusiasm on the election outcome.
Partisan gerrymandering and the narrow Senate majority add uncertainty to both parties' prospects for controlling Congress.