Analyst warns OpenAI collapse could trigger AI bubble burst akin to Lehman collapse

Researcher and AI skeptic Ed Zitron warned that the artificial-intelligence market may be overly dependent on a single firm, OpenAI, and that its possible collapse could trigger a wider downturn. He noted that OpenAI’s rapid rise and upcoming initial public offering have made it the focal point of investor and public interest in AI.

Zitron cited a recent report he published indicating financial strain at OpenAI and argued that the company's prominence has sustained the current AI enthusiasm. He said the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 arrived at a time when the tech sector was searching for new growth drivers, and that OpenAI’s presence has enabled competitors such as Anthropic to emerge.

"The only reason this has kept going so long is that OpenAI has yet to collapse. Its failure would be a watershed moment — the Lehman Brothers of the AI bubble, and an event that would define the end of one epoch, the start of another," Zitron wrote.

He suggested that if OpenAI were to cease payments to cloud providers like CoreWeave and Oracle, those firms could face debt-servicing difficulties, and that a shift to paid tiers for ChatGPT could dampen investor enthusiasm for AI startups. Zitron concluded that a collapse would likely have a severe impact on equity markets and signal a broader correction in AI-related investments.