仅事实
美国7月就业增长预计大幅放缓
摘要
经济学家预计美国7月就业增长将显著放缓，非农就业人数预计将录得自2024年10月以来最小增幅。尽管预计增速放缓，美联储官员仍认为劳动力市场保持平衡。
据道琼斯共识估计，美国7月就业增长预计将大幅放缓，非农就业人数预计仅增加10万。这将是自2024年10月以来的最低月度增幅，此前6月就业人数增加了14.7万，且今年上半年月均增加13万。失业率预计也将小幅上升至4.2%，美国劳工统计局将在周五发布相关报告。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最新一次政策会议后谈及劳动力市场状况时表示：“你确实会看到就业增长放缓，但同时劳动力供应的放缓也在减缓。因此，劳动力市场处于平衡状态。”鲍威尔补充道：“劳动力市场看起来稳健。”
分析师们预计将仔细审视报告细节，特别是各行业就业增长的分布。BNY美洲宏观策略师约翰·维利斯指出：“如果你看到周期性行业持续未能创造就业岗位，而非周期性行业出现就业流失，这表明劳动力市场确实在走弱。”
尽管有共识预测，一些机构预计结果会更强劲。TS Lombard援引高频数据称，7月非农就业人数可能高达19.9万。
来源
CNBC相关新闻
事实核查
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Unverified
U.S. job growth is forecast to slow considerably in July, with nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by just 100,000, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate.
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This would mark the lowest monthly gain since October 2024, following a rise of 147,000 jobs in June and an average of 130,000 per month in the first half of the year.
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The unemployment rate is also projected to edge up to 4.2% when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its report on Friday.
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Not Confirmed
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the state of the labor market following the central bank's latest policy meeting, stating, 'You do see a slowing in job creation, but also in a slowing, slowing in the supply of workers. So you've got a labor market that's in balance.'
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Confirmed
Powell added, 'The labor market looks solid.'
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Confirmed
Analysts are expected to scrutinize the details of the report, particularly the distribution of job gains across industries.
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John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY, noted, 'If you see cyclical industries continue to not generate jobs, and you see acyclical industries losing jobs, that's a sign that the labor market is really weakening.'
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