China Gains Leverage over Russia as Energy Deal Stalls
A Wall Street Journal analysis says the war and sanctions have shifted the Russia-China partnership, leaving Moscow more dependent on Beijing and delaying a gas pipeline agreement.
The Wall Street Journal reports that more than four years of war and economic isolation have altered the balance of power between Russia and China. While the two countries continue to present a united front, Beijing now holds greater leverage, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.
When Xi Jinping visited Moscow in 2013, he praised Vladimir Putin as a “role model,” admiring the Russian leader’s ability to secure a place at the global table despite an economy reliant on oil and gas. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, that dynamic has reversed, with Putin arriving in Beijing in May seeking a new gas-pipeline contract – the Power of Siberia 2 – that Russia urgently needs.
Chinese officials indicated they would only sign the pipeline deal if Russia sold gas to China at the same price it charges domestically, effectively below market rates. The talks concluded without an agreement on the pipeline, although Putin signed 42 other accords.
Despite the stalled gas deal, China has deepened its support for Russia, purchasing oil at a discount, supplying defense-industry components and providing financial channels that help Moscow evade Western sanctions. Trade between the two nations has risen, with China now accounting for nearly 40 % of Russia’s foreign trade, while Russia makes up less than 4 % of China’s trade.
Analysts note that the partnership rests on shared opposition to the U.S.-led order rather than common values, creating underlying tensions. Russian businesses have complained about an influx of cheaper Chinese goods, and Beijing appears to be using its position to extract concessions, such as Russia’s acceptance of the Chinese yuan for a new regional development bank.
Relations are further strained by Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea, which China views as within its own sphere of influence. A proposed trilateral summit with North Korea was rejected by Beijing, and Xi’s recent visit to Pyongyang underscored China’s primary patron role.
Experts suggest that China’s long-term strategy includes cultivating ties within Russia beyond the current leadership, potentially increasing Russian dependence on Beijing in the future.