Former U.S. Ambassador Says Russia's Strategic Advantage Shifts as Ukraine Expands Deep Strikes
Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, told NPR that Russia is beginning to lose its strategic edge as Ukraine targets military and energy sites deep inside Russian territory, and he linked U.S. support for Ukraine to broader American values and interests.
Ukraine has increased its capability to strike military and energy targets deep within Russian territory, prompting Moscow to respond with drone attacks on Kyiv that killed dozens earlier this week. In an interview, former U.S. ambassador to Poland and Atlantic Council fellow Daniel Fried said the Russian attacks aim at civilian populations, while Ukrainian operations focus on Russian military infrastructure and oil facilities, seeking to isolate Crimea.
Fried told the Kyiv Post that “Russia is beginning to lose” the war, noting that Moscow’s objective of fully subjugating Ukraine has not been achieved and that the growing impact of Ukrainian strikes is being felt by the Russian public. He cautioned that this does not imply an imminent collapse of Russian forces but indicated a shift in strategic advantage toward Ukraine, contrary to earlier predictions of a Russian victory.
Regarding U.S. involvement, Fried argued that supporting Ukraine tests American values and aligns with long-standing interests in defending a free world. He said success for Ukraine would reinforce U.S. credibility globally, including in regions such as Taiwan and the Middle East, and counter narratives of American decline promoted by Russia and China. While he stopped short of calling for direct U.S. troops, he emphasized that continued assistance would benefit both American interests and democratic principles.
When asked what would be at stake if the United States failed to meet this test, Fried replied that Ukraine might still prevail, but the United States would miss an opportunity to be seen as a decisive supporter of the free world. He suggested that European allies should also increase their defense contributions, but that U.S. action remains important.
"The Ukrainians are fighting for the values of what we used to call the free world, the values that America – for over 100 years and especially since 1945 – have championed," Fried said.
"If the Trump administration leans forward, uses the leverage at its disposal to put more pressure on Russia, this war can end well for the Ukrainians, well for the free world and well for the United States," he added.
