Gulf states question US security guarantees as Iran deal takes shape
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U.S. officials are meeting Gulf allies to reassure them that Washington’s security commitments remain firm, while the emerging Iran-U.S. agreement raises concerns about regional stability and future American involvement.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait on Tuesday to discuss the recent Iran-U.S. cease-fire agreement and to gauge Gulf partners’ reactions. The visits come after a brief war between Israel, the United States and Iran that produced widespread attacks on Gulf infrastructure and heightened doubts about the reliability of American security guarantees.
Analysts say the Iran deal, which gives Tehran a role in overseeing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund, could shift the regional security balance. "From the Arab Gulf states’ perspective, the Iran war is a disastrous turning point for the regional security order," said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He added that U.S. disengagement and the flow of resources to Iran may embolden Tehran.
Rubio told reporters in Abu Dhabi that Washington wants to hear Gulf states’ views and that their perspectives will be considered in future decisions. He noted that Iran’s missile program would be a topic of discussion, though the administration has not detailed how it will address the issue.
Gulf leaders have historically relied on the United States as their primary security partner, but the recent conflict and the emerging détente have prompted some to explore alternative arrangements. A senior Gulf diplomat said the war revealed that Iran had a “well-developed plan to target” Gulf states, underscoring lingering vulnerabilities.
While the United Arab Emirates has pledged to deepen ties with the United States, other states are considering diversifying their defence procurement, including sourcing arms from Turkey. Some officials are also contemplating a regional non-aggression pact with Iran, though experts warn that credible deterrence would be required for such an agreement to be effective.
The United States has not asked Gulf allies to contribute to the reconstruction fund at this stage, and Saudi Arabia has said it has “no details” about the proposal. Qatar has expressed interest but has not formally committed.
Overall, Gulf states appear to be reassessing both their relationship with Washington and their approach to Iran, seeking a balance between economic cooperation and security assurances in a shifting geopolitical landscape.