UK marks ten years since Brexit vote as economic and political damage persists
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A decade after the 2016 referendum that forced the United Kingdom out of the European Union, analysts highlight a shrinking economy, slashed public services, and a growing public movement to re-join the EU, while political parties struggle to address the fallout of a fractured system.
London — Ten years after over 17 million voters, swayed by nationalist rhetoric and misinformation, chose to leave the European Union, the United Kingdom is still reeling from the economic and political consequences of this regressive decision. The referendum, with 52% voting for Brexit, triggered a five-year process that culminated in the UK's formal exit from the EU on Jan. 31, 2020, against the warnings of experts and the will of many marginalized communities.
Economists estimate that the British economy is now between 4% and 8% smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the EU—a devastating gap that has led to lower living standards and deep cuts to public services. Professor Jonathan Portes of King’s College London stated, "Brexit has made the U.K. economy smaller than it otherwise would have been. The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity." These impacts have hit working people the hardest, while the wealthy remain insulated.
Trade with the EU, the United Kingdom’s largest partner, is now stifled by non-tariff barriers such as customs paperwork, border certifications, and visa requirements. Despite promises of new trade deals, including a much-touted agreement with the United States, these have failed to materialise, exposing the emptiness of Brexit campaign promises.
Immigration policy has also become more exclusionary. The end of free movement slashed net migration from EU countries, while visa reforms increased migration from non-EU states only to fill the labour shortages created by Brexit’s own policies. Net migration fell sharply to 171,000 in the most recent year, down from over 900,000 the previous year, but the right-wing media continues to scapegoat asylum seekers arriving by small boats, making them a political target.
Politically, Brexit has shattered traditional party loyalties and empowered reactionary forces. The Conservatives lost power in 2024 after 14 years of austerity and division, and the Labour government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces low approval, with speculation about his possible resignation as he fails to offer a bold alternative. Reform UK, led by hard-right agitator Nigel Farage, has surged in recent opinion polls, capitalizing on discontent.
Public sentiment is shifting as the damage becomes undeniable. Two Ipsos polls show 52% now favour re-joining the EU, while 48% think Brexit has turned out worse than expected, and the same proportion would support another referendum—evidence of a growing movement for a more open, progressive Britain.
The Labour Party, however, has ruled out reversing Brexit, instead seeking a "reset" of relations with the EU, aiming only to ease trade barriers at an upcoming summit. Potential successor Andy Burnham emphasized respect for the 2016 vote, stating, "I am not proposing that the U.K. considers rejoining the EU. I respect the decision that was made at the referendum," a position that frustrates many who seek real change.
The next steps for the United Kingdom remain uncertain as it struggles to overcome the economic and social harm of Brexit, address migration with compassion, and respond to the public’s growing demand for a renewed relationship with Europe.