UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer Resigns as Labour Faces Local Election Defeat
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Keir Starmer announced his resignation after less than two years in office, prompting a leadership contest that could bring Andy Burnham to the premiership. The change comes amid ongoing economic challenges and demographic shifts highlighted by recent ONS data.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday that he will step down after serving less than two years, triggering a Labour leadership contest that is expected to begin next month. If elected, former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could become the United Kingdom’s seventh prime minister since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Starmer’s departure follows a series of short-lived governments that have succeeded the 2016 vote. David Cameron resigned after the referendum result, Theresa May served three years without securing a Brexit deal, Boris Johnson won a landslide election but left office amid the Partygate scandal, Liz Truss held the post for 49 days, and Rishi Sunak oversaw the Conservative Party’s worst parliamentary defeat before yielding to Labour in 2024.
The Office for National Statistics released new population projections indicating that births will fall below deaths by mid-2026, initiating a period of natural population decline. Between 2024 and 2034 the ONS expects 6.4 million births and 6.85 million deaths, creating a shortfall of about 450,000 people. Net migration is projected to be the only factor sustaining modest population growth, with the total increase by 2034 revised down to 1.7 million, roughly half of the previous estimate. "Our latest projections indicate slower population growth than previously projected," said James Robards, head of population projections at the ONS.
A recent working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that Brexit has reduced the UK’s GDP by 6 % to 8 % over the past decade, with investment down 12 %-13 %, employment down 3 %-4 %, and productivity falling a similar margin. The authors attributed about half of the loss to heightened policy uncertainty and the remainder to increased trade costs.
The leadership change occurs as the UK confronts both a shrinking tax base—driven by a growing pension-eligible population and fewer children—and the longer-term economic impact of the Brexit transition.