Colombia's presidential race pits peace talks against hard-line security approach

Colombia's presidential election on Sunday is being shaped by a sharp rise in violence and forced displacement linked to armed groups that have expanded their presence in rural areas. The conflict, which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives over six decades, has seen the membership of illegal factions such as FARC dissidents, the ELN and Clan del Golfo roughly double in the past five years, prompting voters to prioritize security concerns.

Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, a key figure in the 2016 peace accord that disarmed thousands of FARC fighters, is campaigning on a revised “total peace” strategy that would reassess negotiations with armed groups and combine security measures with social programmes. He has pledged “social transformations that the country urgently cries out for” and said the government must take stock of its current approach.

His main rival, conservative businessman and lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, is running as an outsider and has promised a hard-line response, including the construction of ten mega-prisons and a complete end to talks with armed groups. He told voters he has the “balls” to confront criminals and pledged that any non-surrendering offender would be taken down.

Government advisor Isabelita Mercado Pineda warned that forced displacement rose 300 % between 2024 and 2025, a level not seen in two decades, citing increased cocaine production, gaps left by the army’s retreat from former FARC territories and a perceived “carrot but not enough stick” policy.

Voters have heard personal accounts of the conflict’s impact. Edilma Martinez Flores, who fled her home near Cali after armed groups issued eviction leaflets and planted bombs, recounted her brother’s murder in front of his children. Others described extortion, kidnappings and the loss of livelihoods in contested regions.

The race also features external influence, with former U.S. President Donald Trump endorsing de la Espriella and stating that a victory for him would bring “total support and strength of the United States.” Trump characterized Cepeda as a “radical left Marxist.”

Supporters of Cepeda argue his approach addresses the structural roots of insecurity, such as poverty and lack of state presence, while de la Espriella’s backers emphasize his toughness on drug trafficking and guerrilla groups. The election outcome is expected to have significant implications for Colombia’s security policy and its relationship with the United States.