Bitcoin shows bottom signal as holders accumulate 125,000 BTC in June

Bitcoin slipped about 1% on Wednesday, trading near $65,300, but on-chain metrics suggest a potential floor is forming. The cryptocurrency's Sharpe ratio dropped to -20 on June 11, a level that historically coincided with the start of multi-month basing periods after the 2015, 2018-19 and 2022-23 cycles. At the same time, addresses known for long-term holding, called accumulator wallets, took in roughly 125,000 BTC during the first half of June, while exchange reserves have declined by about 80,000 BTC since February.

The market reaction followed the Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh, which left the benchmark fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and removed any language hinting at future easing. Traders now price a high probability of at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. The Fed’s updated projections show the year-end rate at 3.8%, up from the 3.4% expected three months earlier.

In traditional markets, U.S. stock futures rose and the Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.8% after a brief pullback, while oil prices fell after the U.S.–Iran agreement pushed Brent crude back to around $75 a barrel. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen modest net inflows in recent sessions, with BlackRock’s IBIT attracting more than $150 million over four days, though the sector still records weekly outflows.

Glassnode data indicate that the order-book imbalance on Binance, measuring buy-side liquidity versus sell-side liquidity, has risen to its highest level since early 2024, suggesting increased demand from passive buyers. Analysts caution that while the Sharpe ratio and accumulation metrics point to a bottom, the next move will depend on the Fed’s tone on inflation and the forthcoming dot-plot projections.