Ukraine warns of imminent Russian IRBM launch as Russia marks Russia Day

Ukraine’s air force warned on June 12 that there is a high probability Russian forces will launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile from the Kapustin Yar site in Astrakhan Oblast within the next day. The alert follows reports that the United States has cautioned Kyiv about the threat. Russia has used the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine at least three times, including twice in 2026.

President Vladimir Putin used the Russia Day celebrations on June 12 to meet with troops, praising advances in drone technology, artificial-intelligence integration, electronic-warfare systems and a domestic satellite network. He also highlighted social support measures for soldiers and their families, while acknowledging that Russian forces are not advancing as quickly as desired but are making “gradual” progress.

A Communist Party deputy, Vyacheslav Markhaev, criticised the Kremlin’s war strategy on social media, accusing officials of prioritising elite enrichment over ordinary citizens’ hardships and calling for a clear plan to end the conflict.

In the southern front, Russian sources released geolocated footage of troops operating in Kostyantynivka, suggesting a coordinated effort to portray a larger presence than may exist. Ukrainian officials estimate 100-250 Russian soldiers are active in the city’s centre, infiltrating at intervals of six to seven hours. Analysts say the footage is likely part of a cognitive-warfare campaign to exaggerate Russian gains ahead of the holiday.

Russian forces continue to make limited tactical advances in Kostyantynivka after a ten-month effort to capture the city, but progress is slow and costly. Parallel operations in Kharkiv, Donetsk and other regions showed no confirmed territorial gains on June 11-12.

Separately, Russia is constructing at least five long-range drone launch sites in western oblasts near the Belarusian border, enabling strikes that could pass through Belarusian airspace. Ukrainian officials note the proximity allows larger payloads and raises the risk of drones entering Belarusian territory.

Overall, the situation reflects heightened missile threats to Ukraine and a Russian narrative emphasizing military modernization while confronting operational setbacks on the ground.