Suspected Insider Trading on Polymarket Yields $2.4 Million in Iran War Bets

Nine interconnected accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket have reportedly amassed over $2.4 million by betting on specific U.S. military actions in Iran. These accounts achieved a 98% success rate across more than 80 bets, including wagers on the dates of initial U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder and CEO of data analytics firm Bubblemaps, described the pattern as "the most insane" they've observed on Polymarket, suggesting that "luck alone cannot explain those numbers."

The U.S. prohibits betting on military actions on platforms like Polymarket; however, users can circumvent restrictions using virtual private networks (VPNs). In a related case, Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted for allegedly using classified information to place bets on a special operations mission to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke reportedly wagered approximately $34,000, resulting in over $400,000 in profits.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), responsible for overseeing such markets, has faced staffing challenges, operating with a single commissioner since 2024. The CFTC has stated it is hiring more staff and utilizing artificial intelligence to address fraudulent activities. In March, the White House issued a memo emphasizing that using nonpublic information on prediction markets is a criminal offense.

Bubblemaps' head of investigations, known as "Deebs," expressed concern that insider trading on prediction markets could have national security implications, as adversaries might use this information to plan their strategies. He warned that such activities "could be putting people's lives at risk."