US-Iran Negotiations Collapse Amid Internal Disputes and Regional Tensions

Negotiations between the United States and Iran have reached an impasse, with internal divisions within Iran's leadership and regional diplomatic challenges contributing to the deadlock.

The United States had presented a 15-point document outlining its demands, which Iran perceived as a surrender note. This led to a breakdown in indirect negotiations, as even the minimal conditions for dialogue under fire failed to materialize.

A significant factor in the stalled talks is the internal discord within Iran's leadership regarding the resolution of the conflict. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, supported by former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, proposed a framework for an agreement. Conversely, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), led by Ahmad Vahidi, believes the regime can endure the current situation and that external pressures will eventually subside.

Efforts by various countries to mediate have been unsuccessful. Pakistan, initially acting as a mediator, concluded that the differences between the parties were too vast. Egypt faced criticism from Gulf states for its perceived neutrality, while Turkey's mediation efforts were hindered by Iranian missile attacks. Oman, previously a mediator, withdrew after the U.S. indicated that only a positive Iranian response to American demands would lead to progress. France shifted its focus to direct discussions with Iran over maritime navigation issues after receiving a cold response from the U.S.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is expected to convene to discuss its relations with France, following France's actions that angered Gulf states, including blocking a proposed UN Security Council resolution and U.S. military flights over its territory. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has already announced its withdrawal from a financing agreement for the development of the new French Rafale fighter jet and is expected to reduce its military purchases from France.

Anwar Gargash, adviser to the UAE leader, criticized Zarif for avoiding the central issue of Iran's longstanding aggression toward its Arab neighbors, adding that Iran's strategy is to portray total destruction as a victory.

The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait, supports Israel's position that attacks on Iran should continue until its military threat to the region and the Strait of Hormuz is eliminated. President Trump is attentive to this stance, and expectations are that the fighting will continue and likely intensify. A limited U.S. ground operation at strategic sites is also a possibility.

The U.S. appears to be focusing on an economic strategy to bring about Iran's collapse. Targets include bridges, major railway lines leading to Tehran, and sectors of the oil industry controlled by the IRGC, which serve as primary income sources for the organization. A diplomatic source noted that economic collapse was a key factor in the downfall of the Soviet Union and suggested that a similar approach could impact Iran.

The economic burden is already evident, with most public-sector workers in Iran not being paid, including large parts of the regular army, in contrast to the IRGC forces where payments continue. Many factories have shut down, and entire sectors of the economy have ceased to function. Even if the war ended now, the regime would not be able to begin reconstruction without a full lifting of sanctions.

The next phase of the economic strategy involves a complete halt to Iran's oil exports, which have already been significantly impacted since the start of the war. This move is expected to deepen the crisis and ultimately lead to economic collapse, as no ideology, however fanatical, can prevent that.