US Intelligence Highlights Direct Iranian Attacks as Primary Threat to Oil Tankers in Strait of Hormuz

US intelligence assessments indicate that direct attacks by Iran, including swarms of one-way attack drones and shore-to-ship ballistic missiles, pose a more significant threat to oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz than the deployment of mines.

In response to potential mining activities, the Trump administration conducted strikes against 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the strait on Tuesday. The US Central Command released footage showing munitions targeting nine of these vessels, most of which were moored at the time.

Despite these actions, the risk of direct attacks remains a pressing concern. A single missile or drone breaching defenses could severely damage or sink a tanker, providing Iran with strategic leverage. This challenge persists even with US Navy destroyers escorting tankers, as intercepting every incoming threat is not guaranteed.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, has been effectively closed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard since the onset of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran on February 28. This blockade has stranded numerous oil tankers, leading to a sharp increase in global oil prices and higher fuel costs for consumers.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated in a recent interview that the US has successfully neutralized many of Iran's offensive capabilities and anticipates the resumption of regular traffic through the strait within a few weeks, though specific details were not provided.

Nevertheless, apprehension over potential Iranian attacks has led most ship operators to halt tanker transits through the strait. On Wednesday, at least three vessels were attacked in and around the strait, including a Japanese container ship and two bulk carriers transporting loose cargo. Iran has claimed responsibility for the attack on the Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree.