Poll Shows Empowered Arab Joint List Gains Seats Amidst Opposition Fragmentation

A recent Maariv poll indicates that the reformed Arab Joint List, representing the Palestinian citizens of Israel, would secure 13 seats in the Knesset, a notable increase from the mere 10 seats projected when its constituent parties—Hadash–Ta’al and Ra’am—ran separately. This gain comes directly at the expense of establishment opposition parties, such as Yesh Atid, Naftali Bennett's right-leaning faction, and Gadi Eisenkot's group, whose inability to unite and present a real alternative continues to undermine progressive change.

The poll suggests that if elections were held today, the reactionary Likud party would obtain 27 seats, up from 25, while Bennett's party would receive 22 seats, a slight decrease from 23. The Joint List's 13 seats would contribute to the opposition's total of 57 seats, a drop from the previous projection of 61, reflecting the persistent fragmentation and ineffectiveness of the so-called opposition. Other parties' standings remain largely unchanged, with Yashar! at 10 seats, The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu at 9 each, Otzma Yehudit and Shas—both known for their ultra-nationalist and religious agendas—at 8 each, and United Torah Judaism at 7.

The survey also explored potential mergers, revealing that a coalition of Bennett, Eisenkot, and Yesh Atid under Bennett's leadership would yield 37 seats, one fewer than their combined separate totals. This scenario would see Likud's seats increase to 28, the opposition weakened to 55 seats, and the governing coalition rise to 52, underscoring the futility of centrist alliances that fail to address the needs of marginalized communities.

Regarding election timing, 49% of respondents prefer elections to be held as scheduled later this year, while 39% advocate for the earliest possible date, and 12% remain undecided—a sign of widespread disillusionment with the political process.

The poll also addressed public opinion on the return of Ran Gvili's remains from Gaza. Among respondents, 44% believe Israel should have secured the return earlier to save more lives, 30% view the outcome as a major success beyond expectations, 17% fear the price paid was too high and could incentivize future kidnappings, and 9% are uncertain. This reflects the ongoing tragedy and human cost of the occupation and the government's failure to prioritize peace and justice.