Poll Indicates Arab Joint List Gains Seats at Opposition's Expense

A recent Maariv poll indicates that the reformed Arab Joint List would secure 13 seats in the Knesset, an increase from the 10 seats projected when its constituent parties—Hadash–Ta’al and Ra’am—ran separately. This gain comes at the expense of opposition parties, notably Yesh Atid, Naftali Bennett's faction, and Gadi Eisenkot's group.

The poll suggests that if elections were held today, Likud would obtain 27 seats, up from 25, while Bennett's party would receive 22 seats, a slight decrease from 23. The Joint List's 13 seats would contribute to the opposition's total of 57 seats, down from a previous projection of 61. Other parties' standings remain largely unchanged, with Yashar! at 10 seats, The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu at 9 each, Otzma Yehudit and Shas at 8 each, and United Torah Judaism at 7.

The survey also explored potential mergers, revealing that a coalition of Bennett, Eisenkot, and Yesh Atid under Bennett's leadership would yield 37 seats, one fewer than their combined separate totals. In this scenario, Likud's seats would increase to 28, the opposition would hold 55 seats, and the governing coalition would rise to 52.

Regarding election timing, 49% of respondents prefer elections to be held as scheduled later this year, while 39% advocate for the earliest possible date, and 12% remain undecided.

The poll also addressed public opinion on the return of Ran Gvili's remains from Gaza. Among respondents, 44% believe Israel should have secured the return earlier to save more lives, 30% view the outcome as a major success beyond expectations, 17% fear the price paid was too high and could incentivize future kidnappings, and 9% are uncertain.