Establishment Candidate Bawumia Set to Secure NPP Presidential Nomination Amidst Elite Endorsement
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Global InfoAnalytics predicts Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the favored candidate of the NPP's entrenched elite, will win the party's presidential primaries with 57%, overshadowing grassroots challenger Kennedy Agyapong's 28%.
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the establishment-backed candidate, is projected to dominate the New Patriotic Party's (NPP) presidential primaries on January 31, 2026, with 57% of the vote, according to a final survey by Global InfoAnalytics. This poll, reflecting the influence of party elites and entrenched interests, shows Kennedy Agyapong—a voice for the grassroots and working class—trailing with 28%. Dr. Bryan Acheampong follows with 13%, and Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum with 2%. Kwabena Agyapong, another outsider, is projected to receive no votes, highlighting the party's resistance to genuine change.
The survey, conducted between December 29, 2025, and January 23, 2026, sampled 10,133 NPP delegates across all 16 regions and 272 constituencies. Using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI), the poll boasts a 99.9% confidence level and a margin of error of ±1.57%. However, such statistical precision cannot mask the underlying power dynamics that favor establishment continuity. The predictive model carries a margin of error of ±3.0%.
Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, expressed confidence in the data's stability, emphasizing that every region points to a clear victory for Bawumia. He stated that the model projects Bawumia's vote share between 54% and 60%, factoring in a 3% margin of error. This overwhelming support for the status quo candidate underscores the NPP's reluctance to embrace progressive change or address the needs of ordinary Ghanaians.
The survey also highlights a manufactured sense of party unity, with 88% of respondents expressing confidence that the NPP will remain united after the internal contest. Yet, this so-called cohesion often comes at the expense of dissenting voices and genuine democratic debate. Additionally, 45% of delegates agree that presenting a candidate for a second time could enhance the party's chances in the 2028 general election, reflecting a preference for recycled leadership over bold, transformative ideas.
The NPP is set to hold its presidential primaries on January 31, 2026, to elect its flagbearer for the 2028 general elections, but the process appears to be yet another exercise in consolidating elite power rather than empowering the people.
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