Israel Plans Gaza City Offensive Amid Ceasefire Challenges

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have developed plans for a military operation targeting Gaza City in March, aiming to push the Yellow Line ceasefire demarcation westward toward the coast, thereby expanding Israeli control within the Gaza Strip. This initiative, disclosed by an Israeli official and an Arab diplomat, hinges on obtaining support from the United States, which is currently working to advance the fragile ceasefire established in October toward a second phase that includes Hamas's disarmament.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during a recent meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, agreed to cooperate with efforts to advance the ceasefire. However, expressing skepticism about the success of disarming Hamas through diplomatic means, Netanyahu has directed the IDF to prepare a contingency plan. The proposed operation would increase Israeli control beyond the current 53% of the Gaza Strip established under the ceasefire terms.

Erez Winner, a research fellow at the Israel Centre for Grand Strategy, noted that an offensive against Hamas would now be more feasible for Israel, as the risk to hostages has diminished following their return. He suggested that evacuating Palestinians would also be more straightforward, given that many are currently residing in tents. Winner stated, "[A new round of fighting in Gaza] will be much faster and easier than people want to believe."

Potential strategies under consideration include an Israeli takeover of Gaza City to prompt a swift surrender by Hamas or a gradual, piece-by-piece takeover of the entire enclave. Since the ceasefire, Israel has conducted regular strikes targeting individuals it identifies as terror operatives who have breached the ceasefire. On Saturday, the IDF reported killing three such operatives in separate incidents across the Strip after they crossed the Yellow Line and approached Israeli troops, posing what the military described as an immediate threat.

The IDF's Southern Command forces remain deployed in the area in accordance with the existing terms of the ceasefire and will continue to act to remove any immediate threats.