Potential Snowfall Expected in Baltimore Area on Tuesday

A storm system is forecasted to impact the Baltimore area on Tuesday, potentially bringing snowfall to the region.

Meteorologist Justin Berk indicates that areas north of Baltimore are likely to experience snow that will accumulate, while southern regions, including Southern Maryland and most of Delmarva, are expected to see chilly rain and wet roads. The situation in metro Baltimore and along the I-95 corridor remains uncertain, as these areas often serve as a dividing line between colder inland temperatures and the warmer influence of lower elevations and nearby water bodies.

The European Model has trended colder, increasing snow expectations into central Maryland, with Baltimore/Washington International Airport (BWI) showing a 60% chance of receiving at least one inch of snow. In contrast, the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) indicates a 30% chance for the same accumulation at BWI.

Factors that may influence snowfall accumulation include surface temperatures slightly above freezing in the city and along I-95, which could prevent snow from sticking. However, if the precipitation arrives before sunrise, a burst of heavier snow could allow for accumulation before any solar energy affects the ground.

Comparisons of various models show differing outcomes. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model predicts snow and a mix entering metro Baltimore and southern Pennsylvania by 6 a.m. on Tuesday. The North American Mesoscale (NAM) 3km model suggests a slower arrival, but Berk expresses skepticism about this model's accuracy, noting its tendency to be too slow in recent events.

Surface temperature forecasts indicate that areas north and west of Baltimore are more likely to experience below-freezing temperatures, aligning with climate averages where inland hills retain cold air longer. If snow falls with temperatures above freezing, it is likely to melt but may persist on grassy surfaces.

In summary, while there is potential for snowfall in the Baltimore area on Tuesday, the extent of accumulation will depend on specific location, timing of precipitation, and surface temperatures. Residents are advised to stay updated with local forecasts as the situation develops.