Consumer Confidence Declines Amid Job Market Concerns

The Conference Board reported a decline in its Consumer Confidence Index to 88.7 in November, down 6.8 points from October and marking the lowest level since April. Economists had anticipated a reading of 93.2. The Expectations Index also fell by 8.6 points to 63.2, while the Present Situation Index decreased to 126.9, a drop of 4.3 points.

Dana Peterson, the board's chief economist, noted that consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions over the next six months. She highlighted that mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained negative, and expectations for increased household incomes diminished significantly after six months of positive readings.

The survey indicated a decline in job market optimism. The proportion of respondents stating that jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 6%, down from 28.6% in October. Conversely, those indicating that jobs are "hard to get" slightly declined to 17.9%, a drop of 0.4 percentage points.

On the same day, ADP reported that private companies shed an average of 2,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending November 1. This aligns with other measures showing weakening consumer sentiment. For instance, the University of Michigan's sentiment gauge dropped 4.9% in November compared to the previous month and was down 29% from a year ago.

Several Federal Reserve officials have suggested that further interest rate reductions may be warranted. Traders are anticipating a high probability that the Fed will lower its key borrowing rate by another quarter percentage point in December.

Peterson noted that consumers' concerns about the economy were primarily driven by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown. Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but remained prominent among other frequent themes.

Inflation expectations rose, with respondents predicting a 4.8% rate one year from now, exceeding the Fed's 2% target and surpassing the University of Michigan survey's outlook of 4.5%. Respondents also expressed positive expectations for the stock market over the next year.

Economic data collection has been affected by the recently ended government shutdown, which suspended data collection and releases. A limited number of reports have been released in recent days.