Invest 95L Likely to Develop into Tropical Storm Near Leeward Islands

A tropical wave, designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is moving west-northwest across the central Atlantic at approximately 15-20 mph. The system is anticipated to develop into a tropical depression or storm by Thursday, nearing the northeastern Leeward Islands.

Satellite imagery from Monday indicates that 95L is well-organized, exhibiting significant rotation and increasing thunderstorm activity. The system is currently experiencing moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots, sea surface temperatures around 29°C (84°F), and a mid-level relative humidity of 70%, all of which are conducive to further development. These favorable conditions are expected to persist throughout the week.

Forecast models suggest that 95L will continue its west-northwest trajectory, potentially passing a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday or Friday. However, a direct impact on the islands cannot be ruled out at this time. Regardless of its exact path, 95L may bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the region. Intensity forecasts for the system vary widely, ranging from a tropical depression to a major hurricane. Further clarity is expected as the system consolidates.

As of the 8 a.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC assigned 95L a 50% chance of development within the next two days and a 70% chance within the next seven days. Should the system attain tropical storm status, it will be named Jerry.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced nine named storms, four hurricanes—including Category 5 Erin and Humberto, Category 4 Gabrielle, and Category 2 Imelda—and three major hurricanes. While the total number of named storms and hurricanes is below the 1991-2020 average for this point in the season, the above-average number of major hurricanes has brought the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index to 91% of the average. Historically, about 20% of hurricane season activity occurs after October 5.