Prediction markets swing wildly as Nvidia CEO succession speculation intensifies

Prediction markets tracking Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's future have shown extreme volatility following the board's launch of an independent investigation into alleged foreign intelligence concerns. On Kalshi, the probability of Huang being removed before year-end briefly rose above 80%, while the odds of former Apple chief Tim Cook becoming Nvidia's next CEO spiked to 91% before falling back to around 10% by the end of the day.

Kalshi data on November 12 placed Cook's likelihood at roughly 10%, after the brief surge. The surge was linked to social media commentary, including a remark by Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman that Nvidia needed “its own Tim Cook,” and an op-ed by Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld in Time, which highlighted Cook’s experience with supply chains and U.S.–China relations as relevant to Nvidia.

Inside-company candidates dominate the betting market. On Polymarket, Vice President Ian Buck leads with a 30% probability, closely followed by CFO Colette Kress at 26.5%. Kalshi shows Buck at about 42% and Kress at 27%, together accounting for more than half of the market’s expectations. Other names such as AMD CEO Lisa Su and Arm CEO Rene Haas hold minimal probabilities.

Analysts remain divided on Huang's odds of departure. Wall Street analyst Dan Ives previously estimated a 15% chance of removal, but later suggested Nvidia may need to move forward without Huang. Prediction-market pricing for a “yes” outcome on Huang’s resignation reached 85%, with a trading volume of roughly $3.58 million.

Nvidia’s board has hired outside counsel and appointed former Acting U.S. Attorney Joon H. Kim to lead the investigation, while maintaining confidence in Huang’s leadership. The Wall Street Journal reported that the board is preparing to remove Huang, though no formal decision has been announced.

The turmoil has weighed on Nvidia’s share price, which fell 7% over the week and posted an 8.61% after-hours drop on Wednesday, despite a 2.92% rise in regular trading. Market capitalization slipped from about $5.78 trillion on October 6 to roughly $4.04 trillion by mid-November, erasing close to $1.7 trillion in value.

Asian markets reacted as well: Taiwan’s weighted index closed down 2.63%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.67%, and South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 1.18% on the same day. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council noted that Alice Huang, involved in the scandal, had visited Taiwan eight times in 2024-2025 without triggering special alerts.

Investors are watching the board’s next steps closely, as Nvidia has lacked a public succession plan since its founding in 1993. The outcome will determine the company’s leadership after more than three decades.