Gold slips below $4,150 as Fed hike odds rise and US-Iran talks weigh

Gold price (XAU/USD) dropped to near $4,125 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, as market participants priced in a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December. The CME FedWatch tool showed the chance of a hike rising to about 84% from 72.8% after the US non-farm payrolls report showed 165,000 jobs added in October, well above expectations, and a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.

Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, reducing its appeal to investors. At the same time, falling crude oil prices, following President Donald Trump's comments downplaying the risk of renewed strikes on Iran, could ease inflation concerns and limit further gold losses, although recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz kept supply worries alive.

"Credit markets were fairly flat on both sides of the Atlantic, but the risk-off tone in equities made it a good week for gold," analysts at Deutsche Bank said, noting the metal was up 5.06% for the week, its best performance since August.

The bank added that the defensive demand for gold emerged amid mixed moves in other asset classes, with the 10-year US Treasury yield up 1 basis point to 4.87% and Brent crude down about 1%.

Technical analysis shows spot gold remaining below its 100-day simple moving average, while staying above the 20-day Bollinger middle band. The Relative Strength Index around 52 indicates modest positive momentum. Immediate resistance is near $4,200, with a stronger barrier around $4,225, and support around $4,065, above the lower Bollinger band at $3,900.