US midterms boost Democratic control, raise questions on Israel aid

Democrats won majorities in the House and Senate as the 2025 midterm results came in, prompting Republicans to blame the Trump administration’s foreign policies for their losses. Vice President JD Vance said on X that the war on Iran, which has driven up fuel prices and added a $47 billion bill, was the “real reason” the party lost votes.

A poll cited by Vance indicated that voters who switched parties wanted an end to the Iran conflict, action on the cost of living, a return to “America First” and a fundamental shift in Washington’s relationship with Israel. About six in ten respondents surveyed by the Associated Press said the decision to go to war with Iran was wrong, and many linked the conflict to rising living costs, according to Andrew Payne of the Chatham House think tank.

In Michigan, Democratic senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, who campaigned on ending U.S. military aid to Israel, won despite heavy spending by the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC. > “We don’t want our money sent to do apartheid or genocide or war,” El-Sayed told supporters. His victory is seen as a precedent for candidates challenging the party’s pro-Israel stance in swing states.

AIPAC reported that more than 234 candidates it supported won their races, but a Responsible Statecraft analysis showed its super-PAC spent $55.3 million on losing contests, including $31.47 million on El-Sayed’s race. Trump has said the United States will end annual military aid to Israel after this year, though he offered few details and said weapons sales would continue.

With Democrats now controlling both chambers, lawmakers are expected to hold hearings and investigations into what the Biden and Trump administrations knew about Israel’s use of U.S. weapons in Gaza. Senate votes have increasingly favored measures to limit arms sales to Israel, but any substantial ban could be vetoed by the president, and overriding a veto would require a two-thirds majority in both houses. > “I would not underestimate the extent to which executive privilege can be deployed in the ways this administration has deployed it,” said Daniel Levy, president of the US/Middle East Project.

Analysts note that while Congress may increase scrutiny of U.S. support for Israel, deeper institutional ties and military collaboration could limit the impact of legislative actions. Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid argued that criticism is aimed at extremist ministers rather than the Israeli state itself, and suggested a more liberal Israeli government could improve relations with Washington. The election results, however, signal growing public opposition to U.S. involvement in the Gaza conflict and the Iran war, raising uncertainty about future policy directions.