Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Supply Concerns Resurface
Crude prices recovered after four weeks of decline, with analysts citing ongoing constraints on Persian Gulf exports despite diplomatic hopes.
Crude oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, with Brent crude trading around $103.60 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $95.98, after falling to four-week lows earlier in the week. Traders shifted focus from U.S. midterm election coverage to developments in the Middle East, where uncertainty over the Iran conflict continues to affect market sentiment.
Energy consultancy Rystad Energy said it does not expect oil flows from the Persian Gulf to normalise soon, even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement to end hostilities. The firm noted that “it is unlikely all points of contention can be resolved within the coming year.”
Vortexa reported that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in October were lower than in September, with combined daily exports of crude, condensates and fuels averaging 17.1 million barrels, down from 18.9 million barrels the month before.
“President Trump's conflicting signals, with military strikes continuing alongside statements downplaying further escalation, have made it difficult for traders to build strong directional conviction,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, as quoted by Reuters.
“The market still has a large risk premium baked in, particularly given the strong oil flows from the Persian Gulf,” ING’s commodity team wrote in a note, adding that recent positive signals from the United States and Iran were insufficient to justify optimism about the war’s end.