Trump trails in approval in 39 states ahead of midterm elections
A Civiqs poll shows President Donald Trump has a negative net approval rating in 39 states, including all major battlegrounds, as voters head to the polls.
A rolling Civiqs tracker of more than 140,000 registered voters indicates President Donald Trump holds a net approval rating of minus 27 nationally, with negative ratings in 39 states and every key battleground as the midterm elections begin. The poll, covering responses from January 20, 2025 to November 2, 2026, calculates net approval by subtracting disapproval from approval.
Professor Costas Panagopoulos of Northeastern University said midterm outcomes are closely tied to voters' views of the incumbent president’s party, describing them as “referenda on incumbent party performance.” He added that Trump’s rallies are likely to mobilize existing supporters rather than sway undecided voters, and that the impact of his involvement on congressional races is “mixed at best.”
Trump’s strongest state ratings remain in traditionally Republican areas, with Wyoming at a net +18 and North Dakota at +12. However, his net approval has fallen in every state since the start of his second term, with the steepest declines in Kentucky (down 38 points) and Idaho (down 32 points).
The White House spokesperson Davis Ingle reiterated the administration’s view of Trump as the Republican Party’s “unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator,” citing tax cuts, prescription-drug cost reductions, border security measures, energy production, private-sector employment growth, and retirement-account reforms as achievements.
Demographic data show the lowest approval among voters aged 18-34 (21% approve) and among women (28% approve). Independent voters are less favorable, with only 26% approving of Trump’s performance.
Panagopoulos warned that independent voters could be decisive and noted a “huge segment” appears to have shifted away from Republican support during this cycle. He cautioned analysts to interpret close race margins as statistically even rather than definitive leads.
The poll’s findings underscore the challenge for Republican candidates who must contend with a nationalized electorate while the party controls both the presidency and Congress.