Democrats lead in House polls as midterms approach amid gerrymandering and tight Senate races

Most national polls show the Democratic Party ahead of President Donald Trump’s Republicans for control of the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with some also projecting a Senate advantage. Analysts note that extensive redistricting by Republican legislators in states such as Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee has created a structural edge for the GOP, while Democrats in California have redrawn districts to mitigate that advantage. The combined effect of gerrymandering and narrow margins in key battleground states means a decisive "blue wave" is not guaranteed, and final tallies may be delayed in jurisdictions that use ranked-choice voting, such as Maine and Alaska.

President Trump, campaigning at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, warned that Democratic candidates are “communists” and “jihadists,” while also highlighting recent White House renovations. He has emphasized that retaining congressional majorities is essential to avoid investigations into alleged misuse of the presidency for personal gain, which Democrats have said they would pursue if they gain control.

In the Senate, several high-profile contests are highlighted. In Texas, state legislator James Talarico is challenging incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton; in Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown seeks to reclaim his seat from Republican Jon Husted. Democrats are also targeting seats in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Iowa, while aiming to hold a seat in Georgia. Republicans have allocated additional campaign funds to incumbents in Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi, states previously considered less competitive.

A notable Republican Senate race in Michigan features GOP nominee Mike Rogers receiving an endorsement from Democratic Representative Haley Stevens, who was defeated by Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in the primary. El-Sayed’s platform includes single-payer health care and a proposal to cut U.S. military aid to Israel, drawing support from progressive Democrats such as Representative Maxwell Frost, who said the campaign is “important to the greater project of making sure that we can get through big ideas in the Democratic Party.”

Latino voter sentiment appears to be shifting toward Democrats, with some voters citing concerns over immigration enforcement. Arturo Colunga, a mobile-phone store owner who recently moved to Michigan, said, “They’re attacking Latinos across the United States and treating us like animals,” and noted his first-time voting in the election.

Republican officials acknowledge the challenges posed by high inflation and fuel costs. Chuck Brockmann, chair of the Scott County Republican Party in Iowa, said rising diesel prices are hurting farm operations but expressed confidence in President Trump’s policies, describing the price impact as “temporary.”