Gold rebounds below $4,000 as Fed hike odds rise, India eases silver import limits

Gold regained ground on Monday after falling below $4,000 per ounce last week, but analysts said the prospect of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes remains a key headwind. The central bank left rates unchanged but market pricing indicates about a 76% chance of a 25-basis-point increase in December, according to CME Group data.

"The gold price fell initially during Kevin Warsh’s press conference before recovering, as the dollar and shorter-dated Treasury yields eased," Heraeus analysts wrote. "However, Thursday’s economic data reinforced the case for another hike: the PCE price index accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in September, core inflation rose to 3.1%, and the U.S. economy expanded at a 3.4% annualised rate in Q3. Following these data prints, gold has fallen below $4,000/oz." The analysts noted that a dip below $4,000 could attract buyers, citing a similar price test in June-July that coincided with increased Chinese demand and higher non-monetary gold imports. They cautioned that the response remains uncertain, pending upcoming People’s Bank of China reserve data. Newmont Corp. reported stable Q3 output of 1.30 million ounces, slightly up quarter-on-quarter but below the 1.42 million ounces produced in the same period a year earlier, and said it expects a stronger Q4 to stay on track with its full-year guidance. Spot gold was trading near session highs at $3,962.60 per ounce, up 2.26% on the day. In the silver market, Heraeus highlighted India’s issuance of permits for roughly 6,500 tonnes of imports over the next six months, an amount that could lift physical inflows by about 90% of the total imported in 2025. The move follows a sharp drop in monthly imports after licensing requirements were introduced earlier in the year, with volumes rebounding in August and September. "Last year, imports jumped to 55.9 moz in October ahead of the festival," the analysts added, noting that dealer premiums over official domestic prices have narrowed to $0.45 per ounce from a peak of $2.50 per ounce a week earlier. Silver prices rose alongside gold, trading around $51 per ounce, with spot silver at $50.987 per ounce, reflecting a 3.77% daily gain.