SpaceX shares slip 5% since September, eroding short-term investor returns

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares were trading at $134 on November 1, down 5.13% from $142 two months earlier, meaning a $1,000 investment would now be worth roughly $948.73, a paper loss of $51.27.

Investors remain cautious about the company’s sizable AI expenditures and reliance on a few large customers. AI firm Anthropic contributed about 34.5% of third-quarter revenue under a computing agreement that could reach $120.5 billion through 2029, while SpaceX projected fourth-quarter capital spending of $35 billion to $40 billion.

In the third quarter, SpaceX reported net income of $4.4 billion, a turnaround from a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA rising 306% to $8.8 billion and operating income of $2.8 billion. Revenue was led by the Super Intelligence segment at $7.56 billion, followed by Connectivity (primarily Starlink) at $5.25 billion, and the traditional Space business at $1.77 billion.

However, the consolidated net loss for the first nine months of 2026 was $413 million, as third-quarter earnings included investment gains, interest income and a tax benefit, underscoring the importance of operating performance and cash generation metrics.

Long-term growth prospects depend on expanding Starlink’s subscription base and monetizing AI infrastructure. Starlink’s connectivity operating income rose 99% year over year to about $2.4 billion, while Super Intelligence revenue jumped roughly 830% to $7.56 billion, delivering $431 million in operating income. Expansion remains capital-intensive, with capital expenditures reaching $48.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026 and free cash flow turning negative $35 billion.

A potential catalyst could be a merger with Tesla, as both companies formed special committees on October 20 to evaluate a transaction, though no agreement has been reached.