Victoria's 2022 voting patterns hint at shifting fortunes for Labor, Liberals and One Nation ahead of state election

Victoria’s political landscape has changed markedly since the 2022 state election, when Labor secured a large victory and Jess Wilson entered parliament as a first-term Liberal member. Recent polling-booth data compiled by The Age suggest that Labor’s support in its northern heartland has eroded, with two-party-preferred swings of 11-15 percentage points toward the Liberals in seats such as Thomastown, Mill Park, Broadmeadows and Greenvale. At Greenvale’s Bethal Primary School booth, incumbent Labor candidate Iwan Walters experienced a 33.2-point swing against him, benefitting the Liberal candidate and several minor-party contenders.

One Nation, which received only 0.22 % of the statewide primary vote in 2022, showed localized strength in regional electorates. In Morwell, the party captured 6.1 % of the vote, and at the Traralgon South Community Hall it received 8.4 %, reflecting growing appeal among older, non-university-educated voters in disadvantaged areas.

The Liberal Party also made inroads in traditionally affluent “blue-ribbon” seats. Jess Wilson retained Kew, but the party’s primary vote fell by five points. At the Canterbury Girls Secondary College booth, Wilson’s share dropped to 44.6 % while independent candidate Sophie Torney, backed by Climate 200, secured 25 %.

In Melbourne’s western suburbs, where Labor has historically performed well, the 2022 results indicated a shift toward the Liberals and independents. In Sydenham, Labor’s primary vote fell by 20.9 % compared with 2018, prompting speculation that the seat could be contested by conservative parties this year.

The analysis underscores three trends that could shape the November 28 election: weakening Labor support in its northern base, rising regional backing for One Nation, and the Liberal Party’s focus on both affluent and western electorates.