Election forecaster shifts 63 of 64 races toward Democrats as midterms near

Inside Elections, an analysis newsletter, revised its outlook for 64 midterm contests this week, moving 63 races toward Democratic candidates and only one toward Republicans. The changes include 45 House races, nine Senate contests – with Texas and Ohio now rated "Tilt Democratic" – and ten gubernatorial contests. In the Senate, Georgia’s Jon Ossoff race was rated "Likely Democratic," while Nebraska and South Carolina shifted toward Democrats but still lean Republican. The only race that moved toward Republicans was the Oregon governor’s race, which remains "Tilt Democratic."

Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy told Fox News that the state’s Division of Elections had initially removed a second candidate named Dan Sullivan from the ballot to preserve election integrity, but the Alaska Supreme Court later overruled that decision. Dunleavy suggested the episode could signal broader vulnerabilities in ranked-choice voting and warned of future manipulation using AI.

In Michigan, Detroit’s media market attracted the most advertising spending of any market in the final week of the 2026 midterms, with nearly $60 million poured into local ads. The Detroit area is a focal point of the Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, where outside groups have aired attack ads. A GOP ad criticized El-Sayed’s stance on Israel, while his campaign responded with a family-focused message.

House Democrats announced a six-figure ad buy targeting Republican Rep. Richard Hudson in North Carolina’s 8th district, where Democrat Richard Ojeda is running. The campaign highlights Hudson’s alleged ties to big-pharma donations and policy positions.

President Donald Trump, speaking at a rally in South Carolina, labeled Black or Jewish voters who support El-Sayed as "crazy" and repeated claims that the candidate is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, a charge the candidate has denied. Trump also questioned the credibility of recent polls and announced a series of virtual "telerallies" to reach voters in multiple states as he cancels a planned in-person rally in Kansas.

House Oversight Chairman James Comer announced a GOP-led investigation into alleged Democratic efforts to recruit a spoiler candidate with the same name as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Comer sent letters to individuals identified in a New York Times report, warning of possible subpoenas.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune condemned the alleged ballot-spoiling scheme, urging voters to support the incumbent Dan Sullivan. The Alaska race has drawn national attention as the state’s ranked-choice voting system faces a new repeal effort on the ballot.

In Ohio, a controversial ad by GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy featuring the estranged mother of Democratic opponent Amy Acton saw a sharp decline in airings after criticism from within the Republican Party.

Wisconsin officials defended a longstanding law that bars individuals who have placed bets on election outcomes from voting, a provision challenged in a recent lawsuit.

Overall, the latest polling shows Democratic candidates holding favorable leads in several key Senate races, while some Republican incumbents, such as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, register low favorability ratings among likely voters.