Poll Shows Democrats Lead Generic Congressional Ballot While Trump Approval Remains Low
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats holding a double-digit advantage on the generic congressional ballot, with President Trump receiving low approval ratings among both registered and likely voters.
A joint NPR, PBS News and Marist poll of 1,289 registered voters conducted on Oct. 19-20 shows Democrats maintaining a significant edge heading into the midterm elections. Among registered voters, the generic congressional ballot favors Democratic candidates by 10 points, and by eight points among likely voters, suggesting a potential advantage for the party in the House races.
The survey also highlights economic concerns, with a third of respondents reporting personal financial hardship in the past year and 40% saying their finances have worsened. "The economy is at the top of my list right now," said Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent voter from Arizona who leans Democratic, adding that high food and gas prices are a strain for all Americans.
President Trump’s job performance remains unpopular: 38% of registered voters and 40% of likely voters approve of his work, while 61% and 59% disapprove, respectively. Strong disapproval—53% of both groups—marks the highest level recorded in the poll.
Democratic enthusiasm outpaces that of Republicans, with 71% of Democratic likely voters describing themselves as "very enthusiastic" about voting compared with 61% of Republican likely voters. However, enthusiasm is lower among key Democratic constituencies, including voters under 45, non-white voters and college-educated white women, where only about half report high enthusiasm.
Issue priorities differ across the electorate. Cost of living concerns dominate, while preserving democracy resonates with Democrats and independents, and immigration is the top issue for self-identified MAGA supporters. About 55% of likely voters say voting for candidates with new ideas is most important in this election.
The poll also reveals confidence in election integrity: roughly three-quarters of likely voters expect state and local elections to be fair and accurate, though confidence is lower among Republicans and MAGA supporters.
Overall, the data suggest Democrats hold a measurable lead but face caution flags related to voter enthusiasm in several demographic groups, while President Trump’s low approval could influence Republican prospects in the upcoming midterms.