Netanyahu's settlement policies likely to persist regardless of election outcome

Israel's upcoming parliamentary election may end Benjamin Netanyahu's 17-year tenure as prime minister, but experts warn that his approach to the occupied West West Bank is likely to endure. Public opinion remains split over Netanyahu's leadership, yet a majority of Israelis continue to back settlement expansion and oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

"There shouldn't be any illusions," said Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group. "At best, a new government would be able to slow down the acceleration we've seen in the last four years of Israel's aggression in the occupied territories and inside Israel itself."

Under Netanyahu, large numbers of armed settlers have increasingly acted independently of the Israeli military, displacing Palestinian families and seizing land. The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack intensified these dynamics, and while a future administration could deploy additional troops or tighten security measures, the pattern of settler violence appears entrenched.

One example is the Tubasi family, who were forced from their home in Jalud after settlers surrounded the house for 19 days, cut off utilities and threatened violence. An Israeli court ordered the military to return the family, but the operation was halted when a mob of over 150 armed settlers intervened, burning the house and driving the family away.

Researchers with anti-settlement groups estimate that since 2023, at least 127 Palestinian herding communities have been displaced, and settlers have established more than 250 outposts across the West Bank. These outposts are illegal under Israeli law, yet the current government has legalized over 100 new settlements, including 44 former outposts.

Opposition leader retired General Gadi Eisenkot, who is expected to form a coalition government, has pledged to curb the most violent settler activity and to empower security forces. However, he does not support a Palestinian state and is expected to allow continued settlement growth in the majority of the territory while permitting limited self-rule in the area administered by the Palestinian Authority.

Internationally, most governments consider the settlements illegal and an obstacle to a two-state solution, a stance Israel rejects, arguing that the West Bank's final status should be decided through negotiations that have not taken place for over a decade. The United States, under President Donald Trump, is unlikely to exert significant pressure on Israel to alter its settlement policy.

The overall assessment from analysts is that while a new administration may implement modest reforms, the fundamental trajectory of settlement expansion and the associated displacement of Palestinians is expected to persist.