Nifty 50 Expected to Trade Within 22,200-23,200 Range Ahead of October 27 Expiry
Analysts project the Nifty 50 to remain between 22,200 and 23,200 until a decisive breakout, while caution persists ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry and high crude oil prices.
The Nifty 50 rose 0.68% on October 26 after a 2.36% correction the previous week, but market participants remain cautious due to a weak broader technical structure, the upcoming monthly derivatives expiry on October 27, and crude oil trading above $100 a barrel. Analysts expect the index to stay within a 22,200-23,200 range until it breaks out decisively to set a clear direction.
On the upside, the index must clear the immediate resistance zone of 22,800-22,850 to sustain its recovery. On the downside, the 22,500-22,400 band is seen as the nearest support level. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the RSI climbed to 46.08 and stayed above its signal line, suggesting modest momentum improvement, while the MACD remains above the reference line but with a contracting green histogram, indicating fading upward pressure.
Options data reveal that the 23,000 strike holds the largest call open interest (1.75 crore contracts), acting as a short-term resistance point, while the 22,500 strike leads put open interest (1.69 crore contracts), serving as a potential support level. The Nifty put-call ratio rose to 1.11 on October 26, pointing to a bullish tilt in market sentiment.
The India VIX increased 1.78% to 17.16, its highest close since May, reflecting heightened caution among traders. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty shows similar patterns, with key resistance around 54,414-54,794 and support near 53,944-53,799, but overall technical weakness persists.
Overall, while a tentative recovery is visible, sustained buying interest and a clear breakout are needed to confirm a durable trend reversal.