Putin's claimed Ukrainian gains far exceed independent estimates

Russian leader Vladimir Putin said Moscow’s forces had taken roughly 6,500 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory and 310 settlements since the start of 2026. Independent assessments by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published on October 16 contradict those figures, estimating a net gain of about 144.5 square kilometres between January and September 2026. ISW also notes periods of loss, including a net reduction of around 122 square kilometres since September 1.

"The Kremlin’s exaggerated battlefield claims form part of a broader information campaign intended to portray Russian advances as inevitable and pressure Ukraine and its Western partners into accepting Moscow’s negotiating demands," the ISW report states.

ISW data shows that in Donetsk region Ukraine retains roughly 5,530 square kilometres, more than 20% of the area, contrary to Putin’s claim that Ukrainian forces control only about 10%. The institute found no evidence of Russian capture of Dobropillia or entry into Druzhkivka, with Russian positions still at least 12 kilometres from Druzhkivka and nine kilometres from Kramatorsk.

In Zaporizhzhia, ISW estimates Ukrainian control at about 24.6% of the region, compared with Putin’s claim of 16.5% Ukrainian control. While Gerasimov said Russian troops were within five kilometres of Zaporizhzhia city, ISW places them at least 20.95 kilometres away, or roughly 11.6 kilometres when accounting for limited infiltration attempts.

For Sumy region, Russian commanders reported capturing more than 300 square kilometres during the summer and autumn, but ISW calculates gains of only 99.1 square kilometres since the beginning of 2026. Earlier data from the Finland-based Black Bird Group indicated that Russia’s net territorial gains in Ukraine fell to their lowest monthly level since June 2023, with Ukrainian counterattacks and expanded drone operations slowing the offensive.