Patriots' Drake Maye posts career-high grade against Raiders, analysis shows better results versus weaker pass defenses
In New England's 45-17 win over the Raiders, quarterback Drake Maye earned his highest grading to date, but statistical comparison indicates his performance is markedly stronger against lower-ranked pass defenses than against top units.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye recorded his best grading of any game this season in the 45-17 victory over the Raiders, posting 16.5 plus plays and only three minus plays, with no "bad" throws and a single minus decision. The performance came against a Raiders pass defense ranked 25th in pass DVOA, a metric that adjusts for opponent quality.
An analysis of Maye's starts shows a clear split: in 13 games against the top half of pass defenses (average DVOA rank 8.9) his net grading was –41, while in 13 games against the bottom half (average rank 25.8) his net grading was +43. By contrast, veteran quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen displayed smaller differentials between top- and bottom-ranked opponents.
Key statistical differences include Maye's PFF passing grade, which is 20 points higher against weaker defenses, and a passer rating that improves by 32.8 points in those games. His expected points added per dropback is +0.56 against the bottom half, whereas Stafford and Allen register near-zero changes. Maye's adjusted completion percentage drops 8.1% against stronger defenses, compared with a 4.2% decline for Stafford and a 1.2% increase for Allen.
Maye also records more turnovers and sacks when facing top defenses, averaging 2.15 turnovers and 2.85 additional sacks per game versus the bottom half. The data suggest that, at this stage of his career, Maye is more effective against lower-ranked pass units, a pattern that mirrors early-career trends for other quarterbacks.
The Patriots have recently added receivers A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, along with offensive-line upgrades including Alijah Vera-Tucker and Jared Wilson at center, in an effort to improve Maye's performance against stronger defenses, particularly in the postseason.
While the comparison to established quarterbacks such as Stafford and Allen highlights Maye's current gap, analysts note that the disparity may narrow as he gains experience and benefits from a fuller supporting cast.