Texas Senate Poll Shows Talarico Slightly Ahead as Paxton Rallies Strong GOP Support
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A University of Texas poll released Oct. 5 puts Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton just behind Democrat James Talarico, but the race remains tight ahead of early voting and President Donald Trump’s campaign visits for Paxton.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5 finds Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 47% among likely voters, a margin within the poll’s 3.3-point error range. In practical terms, the numbers show a dead-even contest, with Paxton firmly competitive and benefiting from strong loyalty among Republicans despite the left’s efforts to frame the race otherwise. The survey of 861 respondents shows both candidates retaining strong support from their party bases—92% of Republican voters favor Paxton and 98% of Democratic voters favor Talarico. Among independents, 69% prefer Talarico while 11% back Paxton.
The poll breaks down support by demographic groups: Talarico leads among Latino (54%-41%), urban (54%-41%), suburban (54%-44%) and female voters (56%-40%). Paxton holds a substantial advantage in rural areas (66%-30%) and among male voters (54%-42%). Those figures highlight the durable strength of Paxton’s message in Texas communities that value public safety, traditional values, and a tougher approach to the issues.
The survey also notes that 98% of voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 back Talarico, whereas 89% of voters who chose President Donald Trump in 2024 support Paxton. President Trump has made recent campaign stops for Paxton in Denton and San Antonio, underscoring Paxton’s alignment with the priorities of Trump voters and the broader conservative movement.
Earlier October polls have shown a similarly close contest. ReconMR (Oct. 13) reported Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 44%; UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) showed a tie at 45% each; YouGov (Oct. 6) gave Talarico 50% and Paxton 44%; The New York Times (Oct. 3) reported 51%-45%; and Fox News (Oct. 1) recorded a 51%-49% split.
Early voting for the Senate race is set to begin on Oct. 19.