Texas Senate race poll shows Talarico ahead of Paxton ahead of early voting
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A University of Texas poll released on Oct. 5 places Democratic Rep. James Talarico slightly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton as early voting begins next week.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5 finds Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 47% among likely voters, a margin within the poll’s 3.3-point error range. The survey of 861 respondents shows both candidates retaining strong support from their party bases—92% of Republican voters favor Paxton and 98% of Democratic voters favor Talarico. Among independents, 69% prefer Talarico while 11% back Paxton.
The poll breaks down support by demographic groups: Talarico leads among Latino (54%-41%), urban (54%-41%), suburban (54%-44%) and female voters (56%-40%). Paxton holds a substantial advantage in rural areas (66%-30%) and among male voters (54%-42%).
The survey also notes that 98% of voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 back Talarico, whereas 89% of voters who chose President Donald Trump in 2024 support Paxton. President Trump has made recent campaign stops for Paxton in Denton and San Antonio.
Earlier October polls have shown a similarly close contest. ReconMR (Oct. 13) reported Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 44%; UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) showed a tie at 45% each; YouGov (Oct. 6) gave Talarico 50% and Paxton 44%; The New York Times (Oct. 3) reported 51%-45%; and Fox News (Oct. 1) recorded a 51%-49% split.
Early voting for the Senate race is set to begin on Oct. 19.