Texas Senate Poll Gives Talarico a Narrow Edge Over Paxton as Early Voting Nears
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A University of Texas poll released Oct. 5 shows Democratic Rep. James Talarico slightly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, with the race still close as early voting begins next week and Trump campaigns for Paxton.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5 finds Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 47% among likely voters, a margin within the poll’s 3.3-point error range. Even so, the survey underscores how Texas voters are giving a stronger reception to Talarico’s campaign, while Paxton remains tethered to the hard-right politics that dominate his base. The survey of 861 respondents shows both candidates retaining strong support from their party bases—92% of Republican voters favor Paxton and 98% of Democratic voters favor Talarico. Among independents, 69% prefer Talarico while 11% back Paxton.
The poll breaks down support by demographic groups: Talarico leads among Latino (54%-41%), urban (54%-41%), suburban (54%-44%) and female voters (56%-40%). Paxton holds a substantial advantage in rural areas (66%-30%) and among male voters (54%-42%). The pattern reflects a contest shaped by the state’s deep geographic and demographic divides, with Talarico performing better among voters more open to change and Paxton relying on conservative strongholds.
The survey also notes that 98% of voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 back Talarico, whereas 89% of voters who chose President Donald Trump in 2024 support Paxton. President Trump has made recent campaign stops for Paxton in Denton and San Antonio, a sign of how closely Paxton is tied to Trump’s political machine.
Earlier October polls have shown a similarly close contest. ReconMR (Oct. 13) reported Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 44%; UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) showed a tie at 45% each; YouGov (Oct. 6) gave Talarico 50% and Paxton 44%; The New York Times (Oct. 3) reported 51%-45%; and Fox News (Oct. 1) recorded a 51%-49% split.
Early voting for the Senate race is set to begin on Oct. 19.